Surviving the 2026 Solar Storm, with Nico Johnson

Warning: The clean energy forecast for 2026 looks stormy—are you ready to weather it?

In part two of our conversation with SunCast host Nico Johnson, we go deep into the chaotic, fast-changing landscape that solar companies are bracing for.

You’ve probably heard the rumors: tax credits vanishing, new tariffs incoming, battery costs skyrocketing, and a federal crackdown via FEOC regulations. But this isn’t just talk—it’s the start of a true solar shakeup. We break down what’s coming and how smart companies can pivot, survive, and even thrive in the face of policy whiplash.

From contingency planning to cash flow strategies, from FEOC fallout to financing fixes—you’ll learn what’s at stake and what’s still worth fighting for. Because here’s the good news: customer demand is still climbing, and the long-term future for solar is as bright as ever… if you can make it through the next storm.

👉 Missed Part 1? Catch Nico’s inspiring solar journey—from rooftops to 800+ podcasts—here.

👉 Listen in for survival strategies every clean energy pro needs to hear—before it’s too late.

🎧 Don’t wait. Catch Part 2 now on this week's Energy Show.

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Transcript Below:

Podcast Summary: Solar Survival Strategies for a Post-Tax Credit World with Nico Johnson

In the second of two episodes, Barry Cinnamon sits down with SunCast host Nico Johnson to discuss how solar companies can weather the coming storm in the clean energy industry. With federal tax credits scheduled to phase out after 2025 and increasing regulatory hurdles, this episode is both a warning and a strategic guide for solar businesses.

🔑 Key Takeaways & Topics:

⚠️ 2026 Will Be a Solar Reckoning

• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, including the 25D (residential) and 48 (commercial/leasing) tax credits, are likely to be eliminated.

• Congress—especially the Republican-led House and Senate—is signaling hostility toward clean energy.

• Additional complications include:

  • Tariffs on batteries and inverters

  • Regulatory confusion around “Foreign Entities of Concern” (FEOC), which could disqualify components from certain countries.

💸 Industry Disruption & Financial Tightening

• Lending is drying up. Financiers are only backing projects guaranteed to finish and interconnect by end of 2025.

• Utility-scale projects, with 2–5 year timelines, are particularly vulnerable.

• Even residential lenders are tightening, causing a slowdown in new fund creation.

🧾 Residential Solar Model Is Cracking

• Industry insiders acknowledge that sales-driven business models with high dealer fees and commissions have hurt the industry.

• The end of tax credits may cleanse the market of overpriced systems and unsustainable financing practices.

🧠 Coping Strategies for Solar Companies

• Be decisive: Cut unnecessary expenses and act fast.

• Safe harbor strategies: Secure components and hit 5% project completion to preserve tax benefits.

• Consolidation is coming: Expect mergers, acquisitions, and capital-backed expansion.

• Diversify services: Add offerings like batteries, HVAC, or roofing to increase share of wallet.

• Community solar is poised for growth—except in states like California where utilities block interconnection.

🔄 Examples of Business Moves

• Companies like Aspen and Encore have secured $250M+ to buy projects and expand strategically.

• Cinnamon Energy has branched into HVAC and heat pumps for full home electrification.

• Some companies are now training solar pros to become roofers, creating integrated offerings.

📉 Forecasted Market Impact

• Analysts project a 30–70% drop in solar deployment in 2026, varying by state.

• Recovery is expected over 2–3 years, but the industry may never return to the "heyday" levels.

🔋 The Inevitable Rise of Electrification

Despite the looming challenges, the conversation ends on a hopeful note:

• Electrification is unstoppable—from heat pumps to EVs to microgrids.

• Companies like Halliburton are already investing in clean tech quietly.

• AI and microgrid tech will accelerate energy efficiency and innovation.

• Innovations like balcony solar and driveway solar kits make solar more accessible and visible.

🎯 Final Message:

Even in the face of political hostility and financial headwinds, the solar train can't be stopped. As Nico says, “This is the sound of inevitability.” Companies that adapt, streamline, and diversify will not only survive—but help lead the next wave of clean energy growth.

🎧 Catch part one of Nico’s conversation to learn about his journey through the solar industry, and find more episodes at www.energyshow.biz.